Specific deterrence focuses on the risk of recidivism by the individual defendant.
Page 44 Share Cite Suggested Citation: The National Academies Press. Despite its salience in the public arena, very little is known about the factors driving the crime trends, and the knowledge base is too limited to support intelligent forecasts of the direction in which crime rates are moving, especially when changing direction.
Developing such a knowledge base is important for enhancing the rationality of public policies and public expenditures related to crime, particularly because many such commitments have to be made well in advance of their actual use. These include, for example, recruiting and training police forces, building prisons, and developing other interventions outside the criminal justice system.
In this chapter we summarize the crime trend history over the past 35 years, examine the factors that appear to have been particularly influential in driving those trends, consider whether change in those factors could have been known in advance, and use that information to indicate some of the potential directions for enhancing the knowledge needed for better explanations and forecasts.
In particular, one might anticipate that property crimes would be respon- sive to the state of economic opportunity, whereas violent crimes might be responsive to the availability of guns or to societal factors stimulating conflict.
Many of these factors would be difficult to know in advance to warrant their serving as leading indicators to indicate future trends.
Different demographic groups, particularly different age and ethnic groups, display very different rates of involvement in crime. Some of these factors could be addressed in the context of generating policies intended to reduce crime.
For example, to the extent that unem- ployment among teenagers and young adults is a major contributing factor to the crimes they commit, then efforts at providing job assistance, job training, or extending unemployment support for those groups could well be stimulated by their anticipated crime trends.
We focus on rob- bery and murder, the two violent crimes that are best measured. We devote less attention to the other two violent crimes, forcible rape and aggravated assault, both of which exhibit important measurement problems. The measurement of forcible rape is subject to important variations in whether the incident is reported to the police and counted as a Part I crime.
Trends in Robbery and Murder In Figure we compare the rates of homicide and robbery from to To provide a comparison of the two trends, we have divided the robbery rate by 25 to put robbery and murder on a comparable scale. The first observation from comparing the murder and robbery trends is their striking similarity.
Both reach their peaks and their troughs within a year of each other. This may suggest that similar factors are affecting both trends, but not necessarily.
It also is possible that one is driving the other. Explaining the correspondence between trends in different types of crime is an important issue for future research see LaFree, Figure Turning Points It is useful to examine the peaks and the troughs of these two curves as a way of identifying knowledge about the factors contributing to crime trends.
The turning points are of particular interest because, once a trend has been established, the value for the current year and the current trend often yield a good prediction of the value for the next year.
But the turning points are usually not easy to predict without a strong model of the factors accounting for such changes in direction.
The rather steady rise in both rates until can be attributed to factors associated with the postwar baby boom that began with the birth cohort. As the baby boom cohorts moved into the high-crime ages of about 15 to 20, they were important contributors to the crime rise of the s and s.
The peak cohort in the baby boom era is the cohort, which had about 4. Indeed, a detailed analysis of demographic effects on crime rates published inand therefore based on data for the s, forecast that crime rates would peak in Blumstein, Cohen, and Miller, Of course, that forecast was relatively easy to make because demo- graphic factors can be reliably traced well into the future, and indeed they are among the few factors that can easily be used as a leading indicator of crime rates.
Crime rates declined between andthe decreases associ- ated with the demographic trends already identified. There was no prior expectation that crime rates would turn up after Undoubtedly, some other factor emerged that overwhelmed the continuing demographic trend. A detailed account Blumstein, ; Blumstein and Rosenfeld, highlighted the importance of the recruitment of young people into crack markets as replacements for the older sellers who were being sent to prison at a very high rate in the early s.
Because crack was typically sold in street markets, these young sellers had to carry guns to protect themselves against street robbers Jacobs, They were far less restrained then their older predecessors in the use of guns, and that diminished restraint contributed to a major rise in firearm violence.Chapter CRIME AND CRIMINALITY It is criminal to steal a purse, (people or physical barriers to prevent the crime).
Table 1: Examples of important direct effects that can produce interactions among ecological, microlevel, and macrolevel factors associated with crime. AFFECTS OF Ecological Factors ON Microlevel Factors Macrolevel Factors.
These bail algorithms, which consider factors like age and criminal history, are supposed to assess the risk that the defendant will commit another crime or fail to appear in court.
For more on the topic, see Algorithms to Set Bail. Ways to reduce crime. society and citizens themselves could consider in preventing crime. Tackling the root causes of crime is an important way to go about reducing crime. Crimes can vary. *Of the following options, which one is an important factor that a crime scene investigator should consider when formulating a plan to process the scene?
CH.5 pg. 98 *After completing rough notes and sketches at a crime scene they should be: (Ch.4). Introduction criminologists have identified a variety of social, economic, personal, and demographic factors that influence crime rate trends. Some of the most important factors identified include: Age According to criminologists, seniors do not commit much crime compared to teenagers.
Tackling the root causes of crime is an important way to go about reducing crime. Crimes can vary in their typology and methods of execution. Notwithstanding these differences, most crimes are the result of certain risk factors, such as poverty, unemployment, lack of meritocracy and unreasonable taxation.